What is a prediction?
A prediction is a smart guess about what will happen next. You are not guessing wildly with your eyes closed. You look at what already happened, and you use it to guess what comes next. When you smell rice and peas cooking, you predict that dinner is nearly ready. When the sky turns grey and cloudy, you predict rain and grab an umbrella. You already do this all day without even noticing!
A prediction is a smart guess about what will happen next. The trick is to base it on what already happened, not on wishing or hoping.
Patterns are the secret
So how do you make a good prediction? You look for a pattern. A pattern is something that repeats or follows a rule. Once you spot the pattern, the next thing is easy to guess. Look at these patty prices: J$260, then J$280, then J$300. Each price is J$20 more than the one before it. That is the rule! So you can predict the next patty will cost about J$320.
Patterns are all around you once you start looking:
Your allowance every Friday is a pattern. The days of the week are a pattern too (after Sunday comes Monday, every single time). Even the price of your favourite snack creeping up a little each year is a pattern. Spot the rule, and the next thing stops being a mystery.
A pattern is something that repeats or follows a rule. Once you spot the pattern, you can predict what comes next.
This is exactly what AI does
A computer using AI makes predictions the very same way you just did, only with LOTS more examples. It looks back at hundreds or even thousands of past numbers, hunts for the pattern hiding inside them, and then guesses the next value. If a little shop's sales go up a bit every week, an AI can spot that rule and predict next week's sales. If a family's light bill is high every hot month, an AI can learn that pattern and predict the next one. There is no magic and no crystal ball, just pattern spotting done really, really fast.
Your turn: guess what comes next
Time to be the pattern detective. Below are five patterns, and each one is missing its last piece. Look at what comes before, work out the rule, then tap what you think comes next. Ready?
Play the Game Guess What Comes Next 🔮
Each round shows a pattern with the last piece missing. Spot the rule (is it going up? is it repeating?), then tap the answer you think comes next!
How to play
- Look at the pattern and work out the rule.
- Tap the button you think comes next.
- Read the why, then press Next pattern →.
Look at your family's grocery spending together. Ask a grown-up roughly what the shopping cost for each of the last three weeks. Is it going up, going down, or staying about the same? Spot the pattern, then make a prediction for next week. After the next shop, check how close you were!
- A prediction is a smart guess about what comes next, based on what already happened.
- A pattern is something that repeats or follows a rule.
- Spot the pattern first, and predicting the next thing becomes easy.
- AI predicts the same way you do, by finding patterns in lots of past examples.
🎮 3D Vox game: Pattern Parade
The birds fly in a secret pattern. Crack it and predict the colour of the next one, exactly how your brain predicts the next patty price!
Next: two math helpers that make your predictions even sharper, the average and the trend.